Herfried Münkler (1) taught political science at Humboldt University in Berlin until 2018. He is known to the politically interested public in Germany through his contributions to press and radio discussions (2). He has published numerous books that explain the world of today by looking back at historical developments. In his opinion piece 'What's next for Europe?' in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (a German newspaper) of 14 March (3), he once again criticises German politics of recent years.
First of all, he rejects those who think that the political West can be restored. Whether it is complying with Trump's demands, flattering him or simply sitting him out. That won't work, because Barack Obama already announced the US's turn towards Asia in 2011. In order to be indispensable for the US, the Europeans would have had to become involved in the Indo-Pacific region and transform the transatlantic West into a global West. But that would have torn Europe apart politically.
Europe and the US would therefore go their separate ways politically in the future. These paths could converge from time to time or even be the same, provided that a common understanding of values could be found again. What the future holds for Europe is already evident from the negotiations that Trump had in Doha to end the war in Afghanistan. The Europeans, who had also sent troops, were only sporadically informed about the results of the talks. The final point was the disaster of the withdrawal from Kabul in August 2021.
The same can now be expected from the negotiations to end the war against Ukraine. As a ‘great dealmaker’, Trump will fail here just as he has in all his negotiations before. And the consequences of this failure would interest him just as little as the previous ones. The aim is to leave the benefits to the US and the costs of the agreement to the Europeans. The Trump administration has demolished the Western defence alliance at every opportunity in recent weeks, and now it is up to the Europeans to stand on their own two feet.
If they fail to do so, they will lose ‘the last shred of self-respect’ and thus their ability to assert themselves. Geopolitically, the Europeans are now in a sandwich position: intimidated by Russia with the threat of nuclear weapons and blackmailed by the USA. Yet Europe has an important geopolitical role to play, as Münkler explains, drawing on the history of ideas of the transatlantic West and Eurasianism. Without Europe, Eurasia is not capable of becoming a world power, and as the strategic thinker Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in 1997, without European support, the United States would not be able to dominate the world.
At present, the Germans in particular must feel they have been made fools of. After all, they had relied on the reliability of the USA and rejected several French proposals to Europeanise their armed forces and arms production. Europe, Münkler continued, had been torn between East and West for the past three centuries. It had been drawn towards the West by some and towards the East by others. This is still the case today: right- and left-wing populist parties have a preference for Putin, that is, for autocracy. In contrast, the centrist parties stand for the liberal values of the old West, such as democracy and the constitutional state.
The expected confrontation will show whether the EU can develop into a geopolitical player – or whether it will break apart. In this case, ‘the isolated states would become doormats for the imperial powers of Russia, China and the USA.’ To prevent this, the Germans, as a ‘power in the middle,’ would have a special responsibility. They had not sought this, but ‘now it remains to be seen whether the local political class is up to these tasks or not.’ Nor is it certain whether the country's citizens are willing to bear these burdens in the long term.
As for the agenda of the incoming government, it would have the task of ‘taming Europe's centrifugal forces, from security to monetary and migration policy, and keeping the EU together.’ This would only be possible through a Europe of two ties: ‘on the one hand, a political centre consisting of the major powers (4), which have broader duties and greater rights, and, on the other hand, a lower-level membership in which the duties are smaller and the political participation is also lower.’ (5)
In this way, the ‘over-bureaucratised rule manager’ would become an effective political actor who would decide according to the majority principle. The establishment of a European army is not necessary, ‘but the creation of a European high command to lead and direct the national armies.’ The regulation for the European Central Bank could be a model here. In this way, Europe could reposition itself geopolitically. And only then will it not become a pawn of the major powers that have an interest in the dissolution of the European Union.
Margit Reiser-Schober
Error in content? Error in translation? – eurolandpost(at)gmx.de
BONUS MATERIAL: Herfried Münkler on the political elite in Germany - excerpt from an interview with Münkler in the Frankfurter Neue Presse on 21 December 2023:
QUESTION: Are the great statesmen of the past missing?
ANSWER: There is a problem with the political elite. The strategic minds that used to exist in German politics have disappeared. This has to do with a generational change, but also with the recruitment mechanisms of political democracy. The orientation framework of politics is a maximum of four years, which is the maximum relevant perspective for most politicians. These are people who are tactically adept, but strategically short-sighted. They mostly tell their pipe dreams of a fairer and more beautiful world.’
- https://www.sowi.hu-berlin.de/en/research-and-teaching-areas/political-theory/team/2507
- https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/interview-prof-muenkler-herfried-politikwissenschaftler-100.html
- https://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/politologe-herfried-muenkler-wie-weiter-in-europa-110352469.html?GEPC=s9&premium=0x85ed4cacf0e71bae2b7bd8965565f72af78df88568118000d0047f10150a3a13
The content of the essay is reproduced because, firstly, it will no longer be online after some time and, secondly, it represents an important contribution to the debate that a European audience deserves.
- Is the size of a member state relevant? The criterion should rather be the willingness of the population to get involved in the European project and to make a tangible contribution to its defence.
- More European integration must result in more European democracy. Without democracy – rooted in the population – Europe is in danger of becoming a ‘colossus with feet of clay’.