Welcome to the euro area, Bulgaria!
Bulgaria is expected to become the next of the 27 EU member states to join the single currency. On 4 June this year, the ECB confirmed that the country had come so close to meeting the convergence criteria that it could join the euro area on 1 January 2026. (3) However, as the Standard Eurobarometer from spring 2025 shows, 47 percent of Bulgarians surveyed are concerned about rising prices and living costs. In the EU 27, 31 percent are affected. Twenty-five percent of those surveyed in Bulgaria express concerns about their economic situation, compared with 20 percent in the EU as a whole. (4)
These concerns are currently feeding into a campaign against the adoption of the euro in Bulgaria. (5) (6) It is being driven not only by an openly pro-Russian party, but also, presumably, by Russia itself. The Bulgarian government now wants to take action against the ‘flood of lies’ about the euro and crack down on usury and unfair trading practices. (7) The tourism industry will benefit from the euro, as will imports and exports. And the Bulgarian state could finance its low debt of only 24.1 per cent of gross domestic product (EU 27: 81 per cent) more cheaply in future. (8) The economic advantages of joining the euro – in ‘normal’ times – should not be underestimated.
But these are not normal times. The world has been changed by four shocks in recent years. Piero Cipollone, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, listed the following in a speech on 29 April: First, since 2018, the power struggle between the United States and China, fought out with mutually escalating tariffs. Second, the coronavirus pandemic, which has led to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains since 2020, necessitating a reassessment of the balance between global integration and resilience. Third, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, which triggered an energy crisis and deepened geopolitical divisions. And finally, fourth, the tariff increases announced by Trump, 'sending shockwaves through the global economy – a stark reminder that the fractures we face are no longer hypothetical, but real.' (9)
Shaping the world we live in
A single European country has little to counter this. It can more or less compensate for the shocks. But it cannot help shape the world in which we do business. The joint currency and the European single market help individual countries achieve greater economic stability. Speculation against a national currency is no longer possible. Similarly, the currency is removed from the short-term interests of national politics. The legal basis of a national central bank can be changed by the law of one parliament. This does not apply to the ECB. As a consequence of joining the euro, national financial and economic policy becomes more demanding, as the possibility of superficial relief through devaluation of the national currency is eliminated. This path requires more commitment from politicians, but in the long term it is the more successful one for the economy and the people. It is therefore not surprising that, according to the Eurobarometer survey in spring 2025, Europeans strongly support the single currency: in the EU 27, the euro has received its highest approval rating to date at 74 per cent, and in the euro area at 83 per cent. (10)
However, the single currency offers more than just stability. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, points this out in a contribution to the ECB blog. (2) The current challenges also offer Europe opportunities to ‘take greater control of its own destiny and help the euro gain greater global significance.’ (2) This would result in lower borrowing costs, less vulnerability to currency fluctuations and protection against sanctions and coercive measures. But here too (as in national politics), nothing comes automatically. To reap these benefits, Europe must ‘strengthen three fundamental pillars: geopolitical credibility, economic resilience and legal and institutional integrity.’
Margit Reiser-Schober
Errors in the content? Errors in the translation? – eurolandpost(at)gmx.eu
- https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/ecofin/2025/07/08/
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250617~7de14a39c3.en.html
This post was also published as an opinion piece in the Financial Times.
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250604~26651b6294.en.html
- https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3372
Reports and documents – Country Factsheets Bulgaria
- https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/tausende-folgen-aufruf-rechtsnationaler-kraefte-zu-protesten-gegen-eine-euro-einfuehrung-in-bulgarie-104.html - 04.06.2025
- https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-1479026.html - 21.06.2025
- https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/warum-viele-bulgaren-den-euro-nicht-wollen-110526392.html
Artikel von Michael Martens in der FAZ vom 10. Juni 2025
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/countryfacts/
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2025/html/ecb.sp250429~5c32473955.en.html
"Navigating a fractured horizon: risks and policy options in a fragmenting world"
Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference on “Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flow” organised by the Bank for International Settlements, the Bank of England, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund
- https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1318