"From Pax Americana to Pax Europaea"
‘25 years of prudent stupidity are taking their toll,’ says Cologne-based political scientist Thomas Jäger (2) – especially with regard to Germany's security and defence policy over the past decade. With regard to national defence policy, Germany, like many other member states, has changed course since 2022. As a result, total defence spending by EU member states grew by more than 30 per cent between 2021 and 2024. In 2024, it is estimated to have reached 326 billion euros (about 1.9 per cent of the EU's GDP). (3) Broken down by country, it ranges from 0.25 per cent of gross domestic product in Ireland (... very supportive!) to 3.3 per cent in Poland in 2023. (4) But there has also been a massive shift at European level.
First European Commissioner for Defence
With the European Parliament's confirmation on 27 November 2024, Andrius Kubilius became the first European Commissioner for Defence. (5) (6) One of his most important tasks is to ensure that Europe not only spends more money on defence, but does so better and in a more European way. (7) He is also responsible for creating a genuine internal market for defence equipment and services. In future, SMEs are to be better integrated into supply chains. On 19 March this year, he presented the ‘White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030’ together with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. This proposes a series of measures ‘to close critical capability gaps and build a strong defence industrial base'. (8)
European cooperation: EDA and PESCO
The European Defence Agency (EDA) (9) in Brussels was established in 2004. It currently employs more than 180 experts (with a network of approximately 2,500 national experts) who are working on over 140 projects. Its aim is to support the national armed forces of EU countries in five areas of work: Firstly, efficient use of resources; secondly, support for cooperation; thirdly, review of capabilities, identification of shortcomings and closing of gaps; fourthly, promotion of defence innovation (including with knowledge from start-ups and universities); and fifthly, joint exercises and training, including drone operations and cyber defence. (10) Every two years, the EDA publishes the CARD report, (Coordinated Annual Review on Defence). (11) This provides member states with an overview and analysis of the defence landscape in the EU and identifies worthwhile opportunities for cooperation.
PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) (12) was established in 2017 by a decision of the European Council (13); all EU member states except Malta are participating. PESCO's task is to deepen defence cooperation between EU member states. To this end, it builds on positive examples of European cooperation in order to expand their scope, focus and results. The 75 projects currently underway are each managed by one member state, which other member states can join if they are interested. The participating countries have agreed to a series of ambitious and more binding commitments. (14)
Financing: EDF, SAFE and European Investment Bank (EIB)
The European Defence Fund (EDF) is the Commission's instrument for promoting European industrial cooperation in the field of defence. (15) EUR 8 billion will be available from 2021 to 2027. Of this, EUR 2.7 billion is earmarked for cooperative defence research. EUR 5.3 billion is available for cooperative capacity-building projects that complement national contributions. The aim is to develop breakthrough technologies and far-reaching interoperable capabilities.
On 27 May 2025, the Council of the European Union adopted SAFE. (16) This instrument provides funding of up to €150 billion for joint procurement in the field of European security and defence. To this end, ‘the Commission will raise up to €150 billion on the capital markets’. (17) SAFE is intended to support those Member States that are willing to invest in industrial production in the defence sector through joint procurement with a focus on priority capabilities. SAFE also opens a new chapter in cooperation with third countries. "The same conditions will apply to Ukraine and the EFTA countries belonging to the EEA as to Member States. Not only will they be able to participate in joint procurement, but it will also be possible to purchase from their industries." (18) By 30 July, 18 Member States had already requested at least EUR 127 billion under the SAFE defence instrument. (19)
As announced by the European Investment Bank (EIB) in a press release dated 21 March 2025, this institution also intends to contribute to strengthening Europe's security and defence. (20) The Board of Directors has further adjusted the EIB Group's lending criteria for European industry and infrastructure in the field of security and defence. This will further facilitate investment in Europe's defence. In line with the Readiness 2030 plan for European rearmament and the White Paper on the Future of European Defence, the EIB Group aims to ‘at least double its investment in security and defence projects this year, reaching a new record level.’
Last ‘Selenskyj moment’ for Europeans?
It was Sunday, 27 July 2025, when Donald Trump gave Europeans their ‘Selenskyj moment’. Following negotiations with the European Commission, the conditions for future market access for European companies were announced at a meeting with President von der Leyen. (21) While many economists (including American ones) are tearing Trump's tariff policy to shreds, for many in Europe the real message of the evening is the power imbalance between the two players. This is likely to encourage Europeans to become more independent of American politics. As Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said in a speech on 28 June 2025: ‘Pax Europaea (peace in Europe) is our strategic responsibility. Our responsibility, not the responsibility of the United States. To achieve this, we must be prepared to be independent.’ (1)
Margit Reiser-Schober
Errors in the content? – Errors in the translation? - eurolandpost(@)gmx.eu
(1) Speech by Commissioner Kubilius at the Tocqueville Conversations: “The Future of Europe: From Pax Americana to Pax Europeae”, 28. Juni 2025 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_25_1661
"Pax Europaea (Peace in Europe) is our strategic responsibility. Our responsibility, not an American responsibility. In order to achieve that, we need to be ready to be independent."
(2) Prof. Thomas Jäger auf X:
https://x.com/jaegerthomas2/status/1949568314730250427
(3) Verteidigungsausgaben Mitgliedsstaaten EU gesamt
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/de/policies/defence-numbers/#expenditure
(4) Verteidigungsausgaben nach Mitgliedsland
https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/brochures/eda---defence-data-23-24---web---final.pdf , S.5
(5) EP bestätigt Kommission am 27.11.2024
https://germany.representation.ec.europa.eu/news/neue-kommission-fur-2024-2029-vom-europaparlament-gewahlt-2024-11-27_de
(6) Andrius Kubilius, erster Kommissar für Verteidigung Europas
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/eu-verteidigungskommissar-kubilius-100.html
(7) Kommissar Andrius Kubilius
https://commission.europa.eu/about/organisation/college-commissioners/andrius-kubilius_en
His task is to help ensure that when it comes to defence, Europe spends more, spends better and spends European.
„creating a true Single Market for Defence products and services, notably by making proposals to improve the integration of SMEs in supply chains“
(8) White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/white-paper-for-european-defence-readiness-2030_en#104841
(9) European Defence Agency
https://eda.europa.eu/
(10) EDA kurz vorgestellt
https://eda.europa.eu/what-we-do/eda-in-short
(11) CARD 2024
https://eda.europa.eu/what-we-do/EU-defence-initiatives/coordinated-annual-review-on-defence-(card)
https://eda.europa.eu/docs/default-source/documents/card-report-2024.pdf
(12) PESCO
https://www.pesco.europa.eu/
(13) Europäischer Rat beschließt PESCO
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32017D2315&from=EN
(14) Bindende Verpflichtungen der Mitgliedsländer
https://www.pesco.europa.eu/binding-commitments/
(16) SAFE
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/DE/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:L_202501106
(17) Finanzierung SAFE
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/ip_25_1340
(18) Öffnung SAFE für Drittländer
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/press-releases/2025/05/27/safe-council-adopts-150-billion-boost-for-joint-procurement-on-european-security-and-defence/
(19) Nutzung SAFE
https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/18-initial-member-states-request-least-eu127-billion-under-safe-defence-instrument-2025-07-30_en
(21) Zölle - DLF Nachrichten 27.07.2025
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/zollstreit-us-praesident-trump-verkuendet-einigung-mit-der-eu-100.html
Ergänzung 1: FAZ, 11. August 2025
Niederländische Großbanken gehen Waffengeschäft an
ABN legt Fonds auf, ING meldet Kreditboom, Rabobank öffnet sich
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/niederlaendische-grossbanken-gehen-waffengeschaeft-an-110630972.html
Ergänzung 2:
Der Kommissionspräsidentin sollte man zugutehalten, dass sie keine Staatschefin ist und die EU nur in dem Rahmen ihrer Zuständigkeiten (beispielsweise hinsichtlich des Binnenmarkts) vertreten kann. Militärisches Gerät kaufen die EU-Mitgliedsländer und Investitionen tätigen die europäischen Unternehmen.